“关税救不了美国”，英国政要说了大实话……
特朗普口中美国被“偷走”的工作岗位到底是如何消失的？
英国前国防大臣本·华莱士（Ben Wallace），在《每日电讯报》（The Telegraph）上发表了一篇文章探讨其中的深层原因。
他在《美国就业岗位并非被偷，而是自身流失》中指出，特朗普关税政策的本质是为了将美国就业岗位的流失归咎于他国，而实际上，美国制造业的早已衰退，这与其工会僵化、生产效率低下、产品缺乏竞争力息息相关。
上世纪80年代末，华莱士的父母搬到了政治和科技都和平向好的宾夕法尼亚州，彼时的宾夕法尼亚州政治生态由传统共和党人与“蓝狗（blue dog）民主党”共同构成。美国也没有太多的极端主义，世人尚未听闻新保守主义或茶党运动。硅谷正孕育着苹果、微软等科技革命的火种。
In the late 1980s, Pennsylvania was a mixture of old-school Republicans and "blue dog" Democrats – a caucus of the fiscally responsible centre Left.
There weren't many extremes. The world hadn't heard of neo-cons or Tea Party politics. Nor had US cities suffered at the hands of hard-Left "progressives" bent on defunding the police. It was a bi-partisan world.
It was also about that time that America was pioneering exciting new tech industries in Silicon Valley – Apple and Microsoft had been founded only a decade earlier in the 1970s.
正是在这样的时代背景下，毫无出口实绩的房地产开发商特朗普突然开始高喊“全世界都在占美国便宜”。谁也不明白他究竟是如何得出这种观点的，但这成为了他数十年来政治动员的核心策略。
It was in this era that Trump decided the "world" was "ripping the US off".
How a property developer with casinos and no real exports to his name came to such a view is anyone's guess. But it is certainly when he discovered that grievance politics had a certain ring to it. The president has ploughed that particular furrow for decades.
华莱士指出，民粹主义政治家擅长诉苦政治（grievance politics）。他们总是大喊大叫地抱怨，却对解决方案束手无策。当特朗普将关税大棒挥向只有企鹅栖息的地区，或是本就对美存在贸易逆差的英国，以及生产耐克运动鞋为美国带来利润的越南等国时，其政策的荒诞性暴露无遗。
Populist politicians are good at grievance politics. They are always loud on the complaints but woeful on the solutions.
Donald Trump's tariffs lasted less time than Rachel Reeves's last Budget before they started to be exposed for their crackpot thinking. Some countries that got a new tariff are populated solely by penguins and others such as the UK actually have a trade deficit. Vietnam makes products such as Nike trainers that profit US shareholders.
但特朗普关税政策本质并不是为了解决贸易失衡，而是试图将俄亥俄州、明尼苏达州和底特律的产业空心化归咎于他国阴谋。他认为这些工作岗位离开美国是因为其他国家合谋偷走了它们，用他的话说就是“欺骗了我们”。
But Trump's tariffs are not about persuading other countries to reduce unfair tariffs. It is about bringing jobs back to Ohio, Minnesota and Detroit. Where he is fundamentally wrong is his belief that those jobs left the US because other countries conspired to steal them. To "rip us off" as he put it.
华莱士在文章中一针见血地指出，特朗普坚信美国发明了一切，美国制造天下第一，认为美国消费者选择外国商品纯属受骗。但现实情况却是：欧洲人不再购买美国汽车，并不是因为关税，而是美国汽车根本不够好。
当1980年代末日本的雷克萨斯进入美国市场时，其各方面都胜过奥兹莫比尔（Oldsmobile）、克莱斯勒（Chrysler）汽车的品质，让美国人无法理解一个高工资的经济体怎么能制造出顶级工业品。
Trump's starting point is that America invented everything and makes the best of everything. He reasons that if American consumers buy foreign goods, it is because they are tricked into doing so.
The reality is very different and has been for decades. People stopped buying American cars in Europe because, with the exception of Teslas, they are just not good enough. It wasn't because of a tariff. When the Japanese Lexus arrived in the US in the late 1980s Americans couldn't understand how a high-wage economy could make a car that beat Oldsmobile and Chrysler in every measure.
华莱士认为，雷克萨斯的成功源自丰田的精益生产体系，而美国汽车业的衰落，则与好斗的工会、低效的生产力和过时的设计密不可分。
Lexus succeeded globally because Toyota, its maker, had the skills, the productivity and the design. The US, like parts of the UK car industry, failed because of belligerent unions, low productivity and poor design.
由于华莱士的家族几代人都从事制造业，因此他十分清楚，从鞋类制造、威士忌酿造到航空航天，制造业的命脉始终是技术而不是关税。当英美沉迷于税收优惠的短期刺激，而持续削减职业教育投入、压制企业家友好环境时，就业岗位的流失早已注定。如果想要留住本国的工作岗位，就需要解决这些问题。
For manufacturers – engineering, shoes, whisky and aerospace. Here, skills are more important than tax. They are the oxygen of the manufacturing sector.
It won't be tariffs that win back US jobs but skills. The UK, like the US, is guilty of not investing enough in our further education and skills. And in the UK, especially, we are also guilty of not fostering an environment friendly to entrepreneurs. We need to fix all that if we are to grow and keep our jobs here.
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