对话李成：中国正在成为全球最重要的投资者

John Goodrich：现在，让我们将目光聚焦于外国投资在中国所扮演的角色。首先，我们要和李菁菁聊聊。对于外国个人或企业而言，在中国开展业务可能颇具挑战性。你能告诉我们在“问中国”问答社区平台上，对在中国创业有什么看法吗？

李菁菁：好的，你知道吗？去年，我们见证了大量来自全球各地的国际游客来中国旅游。事实上，外交部长王毅在两会外长记者会上也提及，“中国游” 已成为全球游客的热词。这不仅体现在相关数据上，我们还能看到众多内容创作者和旅行博主，在中国的各大城市，如哈尔滨、重庆、成都、上海和深圳等地旅行时创作内容。所以，“来中国旅游”已经成为一个流行语。

此外，在过去几年里，来自世界各地的许多学生纷纷前往中国的顶尖大学求学。来中国生活、学习已成为一种潮流，如今，人们也希望来中国工作。在我们的问答社区中，收到了一些关于如何在中国找到理想工作或开展创业的问题。例如，有人问，如果外国人想在中国创办小型企业，可以获得哪些政府支持？是否有财政补贴或优惠政策？还有人问，对那些有兴趣在中国创业的科技公司来说，当前的行业趋势如何，存在哪些市场空白？如今，人们对在中国创业展现出浓厚的兴趣。

我不确定我们的嘉宾是否也能够回答这些问题，但如果网上的各位知道这些问题，并且已在中国工作或创业，欢迎前往我们的CGTN全球社区分享你的解答。

John Goodrich：感谢菁菁的分享。现在，我们将邀请二位教授深入探讨外国投资及其在中国当前的角色和发展趋势。第三个话题：外资是否正在“大规模撤离中国”？

显然，中国将继续扩大开放，并吸引更多的外国资本和外资企业。《政府工作报告》中明确列出了一系列相关举措，特别是在医疗和教育领域开放试点。然而，一些报告对过去一年左右外国在华投资的发展态势表示质疑。路透社的一篇报道指出，今年1月份，中国的外商直接投资为976亿元人民币，但与去年同期相比下降了13.4%。王教授，首先请您谈谈，中国对外国企业来说，是否依然具有吸引力？

王文：正如您提到的，2024年中国吸引外资约8000亿元人民币，约合1200亿美元，同比下降了27%。这一数据确实令人感到遗憾，也反映出当前国际投资竞争异常激烈。由于加息和资本市场变化等因素影响，美国仍是最具吸引力的外国投资目的地。尽管如此，中国在吸引外资方面的表现也不容小觑。中国吸引外国投资的力度有所下降，但仍是世界上吸引外国投资最多的前三个国家之一。

更重要的是，2024年，中国新设立的外商投资企业数量逾5.9万家，同比增长9.9%。此外，医疗仪器设备及仪器仪表制造业、专业技术服务业和计算机制造业的实际使用外资分别增长了98%、40%和21%。这表明中国吸引外资的质量正在不断提升。

另一个非常有趣的数据是，2024年中国对外直接投资超过1400亿美元，已成为全球最重要的对外投资国之一。所以，从这些数据来看，我不同意所谓的外资正在撤离中国，以及其他对中国的负面说法。中国仍然是全球最具吸引力的投资目的地之一。与此同时，中国正在成为全球最重要的投资者之一。这是我的观察。

John Goodrich：李教授，刚王教授指出，进入中国的投资类型已经发生变化，如今它是一种高质量投资。因此，这是一种结构性的变化，而不仅仅是数量上的减少。您是否认同他的观点，并能否告诉我们为什么会发生这种情况？

李成：我同意。首先，我也想呼应王文教授的观点。实际上，说外资撤出中国，这在事实层面是站不住脚的。没错，一些外国公司，特别是美国公司，确实存在担忧，但这和中国关系不大，更多是美国政府的缘故。

随着拜登政府推行“脱钩”与“去风险”政策，特朗普的种种威胁，包括几周前国会发布的投资备忘录以及白宫的声明，这实际上是对与中国进行任何形式贸易或投资的一种禁令。

王文教授说得对，过去几年美国在吸引外资方面确实表现不错。但现在，特朗普政府发起的贸易战让人们忧心忡忡，这场贸易战影响到了所有国家，包括美国的盟友，这种情况可能会改变美国吸引外资的态势。

此外，美国国内局势不稳定，种族、文化、经济差距等方面的紧张态势，都引发了外界对美国市场的担忧。这些因素或许会对中国有利。现在，问题在于，中国经济确实面临一些挑战，部分与中国自身的经济结构调整有关。过去，中国依赖出口导向型发展，并高度依赖房地产开发，不过这种发展策略已经成为历史。所以，这也会导致经济出现一定程度的放缓。

另一方面，我认为全球经济放缓或结构性变化，尤其是美国主导的对华遏制，也是一个关键因素，正如我之前所讨论的。那么，我们真正需要关注的问题是，中国的基本经济前景是好是坏。

我认为它们是非常好的，因为中国有世界一流的基础设施。中国制造业占全球比重达30%，相当于美国和欧盟的总和，由此可见中国工程实力有多强。中国在工程人才储备上具备优势，在信息技术、人工智能、DeepSeek 等领域也有新进展。而且，中国政府大力推动新能源、替代能源以及数字经济发展，这些都是关键领域。

最后我再补充一点。人们可能还对中国市场持怀疑态度，但实际上，现在我们一说起保护主义，通常指的不是中国，而是美国，这是事实。这不仅是中国学者强调的观点，也是美国学者强调的。特别是在特朗普政府领导下，这是一个令人深感担忧的问题。

现在，如果说中国市场不好，那倒要问问，哪个市场好呢？欧盟？中东？非洲？中亚？还是美国？问题在于，每个市场都有自己的挑战。相对而言，中国市场规模依旧庞大。

可能唯一称得上好的市场是新加坡，但新加坡体量太小，成本又太高，无法与中国或美国的大市场相提并论。所以，我们得现实点。

我想这不是我一个人提出的问题，中国企业家以及很多其他国家的企业家，包括外国人，都会注意到这一点。稳定性至关重要。中国保持着社会和政治稳定，我认为这非常非常重要。也许是通过中国自身的制度，也许是强调安全保障。

但话说回来，如今哪个国家不强调安全呢？我认为对中国的一些批评实际上是断章取义的，没有与其他国家进行比较。所以，我的观点与王文的非常相似。就像有人说的，就巨大的市场发展而言，下一个中国还是在中国。

王文：李教授刚才讨论了中国市场的一个非常重要的现象。让我分析一下为什么外国投资者会谈论撤离中国。一个非常重要的背景是，现在中国的国内市场竞争非常激烈。中国的本土企业家竞争能力非常强，国际公司进入中国市场并不容易。现在赚钱不像三四十年前，甚至二十年前那么容易了，因为中国国内竞争太激烈。

比如，二三十年前麦当劳、肯德基刚进入中国市场时，赚钱轻而易举。但如今，中国快餐行业发展迅速。于是，就出现了一些声音，说所有外国投资都在撤离中国。我认为这就是这类观点产生的背景。

李成：我能补充一点吗？王文教授提到了一个很重要的现象，就是中国企业的竞争力。他们面对的不是国家，而是私营企业家及其公司。但我还想补充一点，为外国人提供良好的投资环境非常重要。我认为中国政府强调的包容性增长应得到更有效的落实。因为当中国变得如此具有竞争力时，我们也应该保持同理心，继续减少负面清单，并提供一个良好的投资环境。

我们都同意，一些问题不一定是由于中国本身造成的，但另一方面，中国已经是一个非常重要的经济大国。包容性增长，无论是对全球南方，还是对欧洲和美国，都是非常非常重要的。

现在，中国的电动汽车发展等，对欧洲、德国以及亚洲等国家带来了巨大压力。这对中国领导层来说是一个挑战：如何真正做大“蛋糕”，同时促进国内投资。我认为，让这种人与人之间的交流，尤其是经济交流，继续增长，不仅符合中国的最大利益，也符合所有人的最大利益，特别是中国与全球南方、欧盟的合作，而不仅仅是“一带一路”沿线国家。

对话英文版

John Goodrich：We're now going to turn our attention to the role of foreign investment in China.

First of all, we’re going to talk to Jingjing, because setting up a business for a foreign person or foreign company in China can be a little daunting. Can you tell us what the Ask China community has said about setting up a shop in China?

Li Jingjing：Yeah, you know what? I think last year, we saw a lot of international tourists from around the world traveling to China.

Actually, this morning, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in his press conference, actually he also mentioned that "China travel" has became a buzzword for global tourists.

You can also see that not just by numbers, you can see all the content creators, travel vloggers, they are making contents while traveling in different cities in China. Harbin, Chongqing, Chengdu, Shanghai, Shenzhen……

So, coming to China has became a buzzword.

Also, in the past few years, so many students from all around the world come to study at top Chinese universities.

Coming to China, living, and studying in China has becomes a trendy thing, and now people want to work in China.

In the Community, we got several questions relating to how to find a good job or how to start their own business in China.

For example, someone asked, if some foreigners want to start a small business in China, what kind of support can they get from the government? Are there any financial aids or preferential policies?

Another person also asked, for those interested in starting a tech startup in China, What are the current trends and the market gaps? People are interested in starting their own business in China now.

I'm not sure whether our guests can answer those questions too, but if any of you know the questions, who are already working in China or starting your own business in China, you’re also welcome to go to our CGTN Global Community to answer those questions.

John Goodrich：Thank you, Jingjing. Now, we're going to invite our professors back to take a closer look at foreign investment and its role in China at the moment, and the trends.Topic three is: Is foreign capital massively withdrawing from China?

China clearly remains committed to opening up further and drawing in more foreign capital and foreign businesses.

And then the Government Work Report, there were a series of measures were set out, which showed exactly that several trials in the medical and education sectors, particularly.

However, some reports have cast doubt on the momentum of foreign investment in China over the past year or so.

One from Reuters, foreign direct investment into China came in at 97.6 billion yuan in January, but that was down 13.4 percent from the previous year.

So, Professor Wang, if we could start with you, is China still an attractive destination for foreign businesses?

Wang Wen：Well, as you mentioned, in 2024, China absorbed foreign investment of around 800 billion yuan, which is equal to about 120 billion dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 27 percent.

I think it’s a really very sad data. It also indicates that international investment competition is extremely fierce.

Due to factors such as interest rate hikes and capital market grooves, the United States remains the most attractive country for foreign investment,  but even that, China is not bad either.

Although China’s attraction of foreign investment has decreased, it is still one of the top three countries in the world that attracts the most foreign investment.

More importantly, in 2024, China established 59,000 foreign investment enterprises, a year-on-year increase of 9.9 percent.

Moreover, the actual use of foreign investment in medical equipment, professional technology services, and computer manufacturing increased by 98 percent, 40 percent, and 21 percent, respectively.

This indicates that China’s attraction of foreign investment has become more of higher quality.

Another very interesting data I want to share with you is that in 2024, China’s outward direct investment reached over 140 billion U.S. dollars, making it the world's most important outward investor.

So, from this data, I don’t agree with the so-called foreign capital withdrawal from China, And other negative opinions about China. To be precise, China remained one of the most worldwide countries for investment in the world. At the same time, China is becoming the world’s most important investor. So, this is my observation.

John Goodrich：Professor Li, Professor Wang indicated that the type of investment coming into China has changed, it's a high-quality type of investment. So, it’s a structural change rather than just a simple decrease.Could you tell us why you think that might be happening, if you agree with his sentiment?

Li Cheng: Well, yes, I agree. First of all, I also want to echo what Professor Wang Wen said, the whole thing about foreign companies withdrawing from China is factually wrong.

Yes, there’s some concern in foreign companies, particularly U.S. companies, but it has less to do with China but to do with the U.S. government.

With Biden’s decoupling and de-risking, or Trump’s threats, including, just a few weeks ago, the investment memorandum that White House released, this is really one of the bans on any kind of trade or investment with China.

Wang Wen was right that the U.S. did well in the past few years in terms of attracting foreign investment. But now, people worry about under the Trump administration, the trade war against every country, including American allies which could change that.

Also, the American domestic instability, the current tensions with racial, cultural, or namely economic disparity, all these raised concern about the U.S. market, etc. This could unfold in China’s favor.

Now, the question is that, of course, China’s economic challenges, partially related with China’s own economic structure change from previous export-led development with a huge emphasis on property development, that development strategy is already over. 

Therefore, that will relate to some of the economic slowdown.

But on the other hand, I think it’s the global economic slowdown or structural change, especially the U.S.-led containment against China, as I discussed earlier on.

So, here is the real issue we should look at: whether China’s basic economic prospect is good or bad. I think it’s very good because China has world-class infrastructure.

China’s manufacturing sector occupied 30 percent of the world, just like the U.S. and EU combined. This tells you how powerful the engineering force is.

China's human resources in terms of engineers and China’s recent developments in IT, AI and DeepSeek, etc.

And the Chinese government rightly emphasizes new energy, alternative energy, and the digital economy. These are all the things are right.

Now, let me end with one thing. Now people still maybe cynical about China’s market, but actually, nowadays, we talk about protectionism, usually we do not talk about China—we talk about the United States. That’s a fact.

This is also not the only just Chinese scholars talked about that, American scholars also emphasizing the current situation especially under the Trump administration. That’s deeply worried.

Now, if China’s market is not good, so tell me which market is good? EU? Middle East? Africa? Central Asia? Or United States?

The problem is that each market has some challenges.Relatively speaking, China’s market is still huge.

Maybe the only good market is Singapore, but Singapore is so small and too expensive. It can’t compare with China’s huge market or the U.S. huge market.

So, let’s be realistic. I think this is not the question I raise. I think the Chinese entrepreneurs and many others, and foreigners, will all review that one.

I think stability is important. China maintains social and political stability, and I think this is very, very important. Maybe it’s through China’s own system and maybe emphasize on security.

But on the other hand, which country is not emphasizing security nowadays? I think some of the criticism of China is really out of context, without being compared to other countries.

So, my view is really similar to Wang Wen’s. I think as someone said, the next China is still in China in terms of huge market development.

WangWen: Dr. Li Cheng just talked about a very important phenomenon for the Chinese market.

Let me analyze those opinions. Why those foreign investment is talking about withdrawal from China.

One very important background is that now China’s domestic market competition is very very serious.

Those Chinese domestic entrepreneurs, their competition and capacity are very very strong, have very strong competitive capacities, and it’s not very easy for international companies to enter the Chinese market.

Now it’s not very easy to earn money, ‘cause the domestic competition of China is very very serious, and not like 30 years ago ,or 40 years ago ,or 20 years ago.

For example, the fast food McDonald or KFC, 20 years ago, 30 years ago, when they entered the Chinese market, it was very easy to earn money.But now, China’s fast-food industry makes progress very quickly.

Then, some voices happened, that all foreign investment is withdrawing from China.

I think this is the background of those opinions.

Li Cheng: Can I add one thing? Certainly, Wang Wen raised a very important phenomenon: the competitiveness of the Chinese companies.

It's not the state, but private entrepreneurs and their companies.

But I still want to add one thing: I think it’s very important to provide the good investment environment for foreigners.

I think the Chinese government’s emphasis on inclusive growth should be more effectively implemented.

Because, when China becomes so competitive, we should also have empathy and also really continue to reduce the negative list, and also provide a good environment.

Now again, Wang Wen and I  all agree that some of the issues are not necessarily because of China, but on the other hand, because China is already a very important economic giant.

Inclusive growth, whether for the Global South, or for Europe and the United States, is very, very important.

Now, this gives tremendous pressure where the EVs, or many other things for countries like Europe and Germany, and also in Asia.

I think that it's a challenge for Chinese leadership: how to really make the cake bigger and provide domestic investment.

I think it's China’s best interest, and in everyone’s best interest, that the people-to-people exchange, like this kind of economic exchanges, continue to grow, especially in the case of China with Global South, with the EU, not just Belt and Road countries, and etc.