“我是大豆农，我为总统投过票，求结束贸易战”
“我是一个种大豆的农民，也是特朗普的支持者。现在，我恳请总统尽快结束这场贸易战。”一名连续三次投票支持特朗普的农民说。
近日，美国肯塔基州的大豆农民、美国大豆协会主席凯莱布·拉格兰德（Caleb Ragland）发表公开信，呼吁总统特朗普尽快与中国达成贸易协议。他在信中写道：“总统先生，我真诚希望您能听见我们的呼声：请尽快与中国达成协议。”
"I'm a soybean farmer who voted for Trump. I'm begging the president to end the trade war."
Caleb Ragland, 38, from Magnolia, Kentucky, who comes from a long line of farmers stretching back 200 years, is one of them — having voted for Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Still, as the president of the American Soybean Association — representing 500,000 soybean farmers across the country — he is deeply concerned about how tariffs will impact him and his colleagues.
He asks president Trump to secure a deal with China, and save the future of farming in America.
拉格兰德家族已经耕种九代，如今经营着一片1500英亩的大豆农场。他在信中指出，当前美国对中国加征的关税，可能会在2027年之前让他的农场走向破产。“我们几代人流血流汗打拼出来的一切，可能就因为一句政策决定而灰飞烟灭。”
"The tariffs on China could put us out of business by 2027. All our blood, sweat, and toil could vanish with the stroke of a pen."
凯莱布·拉格兰德在肯塔基州的农场里 来源：美国大豆协会
他提到，大豆价格已从三年前的每蒲式耳17美元大幅下跌至目前的10美元。每英亩的种植成本高达600美元，收入却只有500美元。今年他的农场预计将亏损15万美元，只能依靠贷款来维持运营。“很多农民现在都是借钱种地，相当于倒贴着钱去干活。”他补充道，一些农民已经因为资金链断裂，不得不拍卖农场或宣布破产。
I am one of the 500,000 soybean farmers in America who feels the pain. We have 1,500 acres of soybeans on my farm. At $600 an acre, our production costs are $900,000. But in the current climate, an acre brings in only $500 of revenue, which means we're yielding $750,000 — a $150,000 loss. This year we're hoping to hang on with a loan to cover the difference.
But not every farmer is so lucky. I've watched my fellow farmers, who were already having difficulties, forced to have auctions and sell their farms. Some have had to declare bankruptcy and take whatever work they can get as farmhands. Most farmers can't afford any more losses. In the most basic sense, we're being asked to pay to go to work.
作为美国大豆的最大出口市场，中国在2024年购买了美国52%的出口大豆。但与2018年贸易战前相比，这一市场份额已永久性下滑了10%。拉格兰德担忧，如果僵局持续，中国可能会转向巴西采购大豆。巴西正在推进开垦7000万英亩新农地的计划，这些土地大多来源于砍伐雨林和改造退化牧场。这一趋势可能进一步压缩美国在全球大豆市场的空间。
拉格兰德坦言，2018年发起的那场贸易战曾给美国农业带来260亿美元的损失，其中大豆相关的损失就接近200亿美元。尽管当时贸易战最后签了一个协议，但拜登政府未有效执行协议内容。
“现在比以往任何时候都更需要一个新的协议。我们的农业经济远比特朗普第一任期时更脆弱，”他说，“加上通胀和生产成本的上升，许多农民的现金流已经非常紧张，几乎没有任何缓冲空间。”
"The farm economy is much weaker now than it was in his first term."
"Rising inflation and the costs of production haven't helped. We farmers have less working capital and less of a cushion to fall back on these days."
拉格兰德强调，美国农业与全美约3400万个就业岗位息息相关。从卖种子和化肥的商人，到帮农民做账的农业顾问，每一个环节都是这个庞大产业链的一部分。整个行业为美国经济贡献达1.5万亿美元，是中部地区的经济命脉。
The agriculture and food industries support over 34 million American jobs — from seed and fertilizer retailers to agronomists who help farmers make the best financial decisions — and contribute $1.5 trillion to the economy. But it's also the lifeblood of the American heartland.
“有人说我们应该把所有大豆都卖到美国国内，但这并不是一件说做就能做到的事。”拉格兰德还提醒，要做到这一点，得把目前美国市场的需求翻一倍。这就意味着，美国人要吃的猪肉、鸡肉和牛肉得翻倍，连生物燃料的产量也得翻倍才行。这在短期内并不现实。
Some say we should aim to sell all our soybeans domestically. But to do that, we would need to double the markets that we currently have in the US. That's just not going to happen at the snap of a finger. It would mean doubling the US consumption of pork, poultry, and beef as well as biofuel production.
信的最后，拉格兰德代表全美50万名大豆种植者发出呼吁：“与中国的贸易战，实际上是在拿我们农民的生计作赌注。我们这些扎根土地的人，世世代代都在干这一行，不会也不想做别的。”
"The current trade war with China is a gamble with American livelihoods, especially for farmers — those of us who grew up with soil and sweat — who can't imagine doing anything else."
目前，特朗普政府已宣布暂停对愿意谈判国家的报复性关税。尽管仍对中国维持高额关税，拉格兰德将此视为释放善意的迹象。他恳切希望，中美双方能早日达成协议，挽救濒临困境的美国农业。
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